Things have been moving very fast these past couple of weeks, and on the surface, at least, it looks as if the momentum has swung back in John McCain's direction. There's a USA Today/ Gallup poll set to come out tomorrow which has McCain over Obama by 10 points.
Is that the reason for my burnout? Perhaps, but it's a symptom of something larger: the nastiness has returned to the campaign.
It didn't really bother me during the primary, because by the time Hillary went negative, Barack had already made the nomination a mathematical foregone conclusion. I was fairly certain that the Super Delegates (the only ones who could have saved her) would not be persuaded to jump over to her side simply on the basis of how hard she was hammering him.
But the general is a completely different animal, with a completely different voting population. One consequence of the long Democratic primary was that we were all bathed in the relative "sanity" of the Democratic electorate, where racism and rancor are mostly the exception, not the rule.
Until the choice of Palin, the Republicans were the droopy dogs of this election cycle, but not any more. I expect that was just the effect McCain was hoping for with this choice - excite the base, get some media attention and ride that wave of momentum all the way to the White House.
Palin's speech at the convention was truly horrendous - sneering and mostly full of lies. Same goes for Romney and Giuliani. For McCain to come on stage on Thursday and preach rainbows and unity, was nerve of the highest order.
And I don't mean that in a good way. When I hear someone who's been in Washington for 30 years talk about how he's going to shake things up from the White House, I wonder what the fuck he's been doing all along, and why he thinks anyone should believe him.
But I know that there are people who will fall for it, just like I know that there are alot of stupid Democratic women out there - and I'm not even talking the PUMA's here - who are pro-choice but willing to believe that because Palin is a working mom like them, she must be "like them" in other ways, too. The only reason Palin "works" with both the fundie base and suburban moms, is because she doesn't look like a fundie.
I don't really know why I'm posting this here on the blog, because I've mostly kept this space light and snarky. Maybe I'm trying to work it out for myself, I don't know.
Part of me says to trust Barack, because he's run an awesome campaign so far. But - and I've heard this in private from other bloggers who have more political experience than I do - Barack could be making a huge mistake by continuing to appeal to our better natures, to treat the voters like adults, when his opponent is so willing to wallow in the mud.
On the one hand, that's what his campaign is all about, and if he betrayed that strategy, he'd be a hypocrite. On the other hand, perhaps his unwillingness to do some bare-knuckle brawling means he doesn't "want it" as much as McCain. And while in my own mind, someone who "wants it" so much that they're willing to compromise their principles clearly doesn't deserve "it" in the first place - in politics, that makes you a pussy. And pussies are losers.
I know that in the end I'm gonna stick with Barack til the end, because his campaign has always come through with some game-changing play whenever things have come down to the wire, so I've got to give them the benefit of the doubt here. Like Crash Davis said, don't fuck with a streak.
And so I'll end with this, mostly for myself:
29 comments:
There is still a long way to go. I know it looks bad, but I think this poll will push Obama supporters to work that much harder. I was crushed when Bush was re-elected in 2004, and had to finally admit to myself that many Americans are just plain stupid and vote against their own best interests. I have never done that, so I cannot figure out why anyone would do it, but I must say I will not be surprised if they do it again this time.
"No one ever went broke underestimating the intelligence of the American people."
-- H. L. Mencken
Gallup's polls have consistently overestimated McCain's support versus Obama if you look at other polls. A bounce from the convention was inevitable unless the GOP went into total meltdown, and add to that the saturation coverage of Palin - good or bad, it sure helps name recognition.
Take a look at http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/ for some in-depth analysis of polls and polling. It gives a more ralistic idea of what's going on than anybody's snap polls.
Palin will get a honeymoon period as a new entry to the race, but once people calm down and start looking at issues beyond her family and some of the nonsense that's brought up, and once the blatant lies she told in her speech and has kept telling on the stump are exposed - and that will have to be done again and again until it gets through - that could be quite short.
Remember how the media likes to tear down those it's built up.
On the other hand, I don't think it's necessarily a bad thing for the Obama campaign to go into the main campaign as marginal underdogs. Obama was an unlikely contender who ran a strong campaign to beat Clinton, remember.
It's certainly going to help with the voter registration push and get people focused.
Wonk,
I feel your pain. I just got back from the RNC (covered it for AOL) and I'm downing brain bleach.
My feelings of depression on McFart's decision lifted after actually talking to some Rep. delegates. While on their tongues they say they support her, the moderate ones don't feel it.
She's too dirty and inexperienced to make any difference in this race. The poll bounce was expected and it will level off by the end of next week.
Obama (I think) is waiting for the newness to die down - the "oh, wow!" factor that took us all up.
Hell - there's even some anti-Palin blogs starting up. Maybe you could shift some gears yourself...:-)
http://news.aol.com/political-machine/2008/09/07/women-against-palin/
Have no fear, Wonk. We need to work and donate all we can, but the pressure is all on them.
USA Today didn't link to the full poll results, but in another story by Susan Page about the same poll I found this bit that makes me hugely suspicious of how they put together their model:
In the new survey, more voters call themselves Republicans. Now 48% say they're Democrats or lean to the Democratic Party; 47% say they're Republicans or lean to the GOP.
Not since February 2005, right after Bush's second inauguration, have Republicans been within a single point of Democrats in party identification.
What's more, voters by 48%-45% support the Democratic candidate in their congressional district, the party's narrowest advantage this year.
Those numbers are so far out of kilter for every other poll I've seen on party ID and generic party support for the congressional races that I have huge questions about their model.
CBS/NYT pulled this shit in a poll last week, giving the model a six-point swing to Republicans in the model in just three days and - surprise - they got a big bounce in McCain's numbers. I'm to the point I don't trust the results on any poll unless I've seen the composition of the model.
Also, take a look at the state maps at Pollster, Electoral Vote or Five Thirty Eight. We're at less than sixty days from election day, and Obama has 260EV's in states where he either has more than a ten point lead, or more than a five point lead held constantly for more than two months.
Those states are going to be hard to impossible for the R's to flip in two months. It's nearly a 100EV lead over the states that are safe for McCain. At this point in the 2004 cycle, Bush and Kerry were essentially tied in these safe states. So were Bush and Gore, but I'm working from memory there. The last time I saw a map of safe states this tilted was in 1996, when Clinton was on his way to a EV landslide against Dole.
Here's what has to happen for McCain to win. (Using the electoralvote.com map) He has to win all of the states where he holds narrow leads and he has to win Virginia, which is tied. Then he has to take Ohio, Colorado and Nevada from Obama to get to 270. If he misses on any one of them, Obama wins the presidency.
Obama has to keep what he has by more than five points now, and any combination of the five states where he has smaller leads to get ten EV's. Ohio or Virginia does it. Or Colorado and any one of Nevada, North Dakota or New Hampshire.
I'm not complacent. We can never, ever take this for granted. But we can't ignore our strengths, either.
I've been paying close attention as well, and yeah, it's somewhat rattling. When in doubt, I turn to the electoral maps and remind myself that McCain is going to have to virtually sweep the swing states if he's going to get 270. Obama only needs to secure Ohio and he's over the line.
Anyways, the polls don't really start to matter until after the first debate. And I have a pretty good feeling those are going to swing in Obama's favor.
So everybody chill the fuck out. He's got this covered. :)
I have a feeling things are going to lean in favor of the Democrats once Palin is forced to participate in debates and answer real hard questions.
I read a ridiculous article on Fark today about how Palin was being sequestered about the media because of their personal attacks over her family and political record. Reading it made me want to rant at my screen because it's like they totally forgot about all the asinine, moronic crap that Obama has had thrown at him during the past year and a half.
Ah, here it is: http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080907/pl_nm/usa_politics_palin_media_dc
The paragraph about "throwing her to the pirahnas is the one I was referring to.
I think it's important for Obama to not get down in the mud with McCain and Palin because it would be damaging to his campaign if he didn't. It may not seem like it, but there are people out there who are happy he's chosen to run his campaign the way that he has.
Aside from that, good to hear from you again. :)
Oh, and read this Kos diary. I should give hope:
http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/9/7/154846/6842/716/590179
As a PUMA, I'm enjoying watching your joke of a candidate being destroyed. And, as you said months ago about Hillary supporters, I look forward to the gnashing of teeth and the pulling of hair. Grab the popcorn, this is going to fun!
PUMA
Oh, and more thing. To all those who think it's good politics to smear Palin:
Dear friend,
I received your email with the attachment about Sarah Palin. While this report might be scary and threatening to some, to me it sounds like the same the kind of trash written about Hillary Clinton, Bill Clinton and even Barack Obama. However, since the Clintons are no longer in the race we can leave them out. But what I wonder is why it’s okay to say that Palin is a fundamentalist Christian but not okay to ask why Obama spent twenty years in the pews of Jeremiah Wright’s intolerant church? And why is it okay to allege that Palin wants to destroy Alaska’s wildlife but not okay to ask if Obama plans to support Hamas instead of Israel? And people can can accuse Palin of racism based on rumor and hearsay but not hold Obama accountable for playing the race card, quoting Malcolm X and accusing good people, particularly the Clintons, of racism. While I may not agree with Palin’s politics, I am unmoved by the smear campaign launched against her. Please do not send me any more political emails. While this e-mail goes to great lengths to appear to be politically correct and to be doing me a favor, it’s actually savaging someone’s reputation based on shoddy evidence or outright lies. After forty years of voting for the Democratic candidate for president, I want you to know that these sexist and hateful lies against Sarah Palin you forwarded go against the reason I am a Democrat. Therefore, under no circumstance will I be voting for Obama.
Best Regards
I was out canvassing for Obama yesterday. One guy acted like he was undecided (not true as I later found out). He asked me questions about Obama which I answered and then he finally said he really likes Obama and many of his positions but he can't vote for him for moral reasons. I had already figured out that he was part of the Christian right.
But the good news was that if not for the abortion issue he would have been voting for Obama. So not all of the right are thrilled with their choices.
I forgot to add that this guy said it would be good for the country to elect a black president.
That's great Glix. :)
Best Regards. (what a load of bullshit)
Go back to your PUMA den.
You won't be scaring anyone here with charges of 'sexist and hateful lies' being leveled against Palin. (because most of its the truth, but thats neither here nor there for you PUMA's is it now?)
Your efforts would be best spent elsewhere, that shit don't float here.
I agree with anonymous about saying too much negative about Palin. Even though I find her personal beliefs at compete odds with my own and her political decisions as mayor and as governor reprehensible (AND completely contradictory to what the republicans are trying to tell the country about her), we need to make sure that we do not cross the line into nasty, potentially irrelevant territory.
First and foremost, we need to keep focused on presidential candidate McCain and his political decisions, including his decision to back Bush policy 90% of the time, as well as his current pandering to the extreme right. He selected the ideological equal of Bush as a running mate. How is that change? All that being said, an Obama lioness can defeat a Puma, anyday, anytime. Rowr...
And Wonk, one note about polls. They have perplexed to me this election cycle. How can the Obama movement seem so strong, with its fundraising, and its strong widespread network of workers, and we are even with our opponent? I have been scratching my head about this for a few months now.
And then I figured out what might be causing this inconsistency - polls are conducted through landlines. An estimated 16.8% of American adults do not have a landline. (This is the most recent CDC estimate - conducted in the second half of last year).
Disproportionately, these cell-only adults are young (18-29 years of age), or lower-income minorities, or people sharing homes with people to whom they are not related.
Here is a link for you on this topic:
http://www.pollster.com/blogs/cell_phones_and_political_surv.php
Keep in mind the data from this study I just linked is already out of date (from 2006) - it lists approx. 12% of adults are cell-only. It is already 5% higher than this.
This doesn't even take into account people who see an unfamiliar number on their caller ID on their landline and don't answer.
So, if Obama is getting the votes of 50% of the older white people, that is great news, right?
Keep it up Wonk and the rest of you!
Ha ha ha...now that joke of candidate is sinking like the Titanic, you get huffy. Maybe all the sexism and race-baiting from your fraud of a Leader should have been fair warning. But it does take Kool-Aid a while to wear off. Your America-hating (Wright), terrorist-loving (Ayers) candidate hates women (Hillar and Palin) and the rest of America is finding out what what a fraud SoetroBama really is. It's like watching a slow-motion train wreck, except that it's fun!
Dear PUMA anon,
Yawn.....
@ jackie - Very interesting about the landlines. Thanks for posting that link.
"Best Regards" has been dispatched here by the lovely TexasDarlin: http://texasdarlin.wordpress.com/2008/09/07/reply-all-rejecting-obama%E2%80%99s-e-mail-smear-campaign-template-included/
Can't even type his/her own posts.
I figured as much Anon 6:36.
It just sounded to much like the PUMA/No IQ, hill44 tripe we've all had to suffer through since Feb. 5th.
All the talk about watching Obama implode, they've been writing/talking that crap for 6 months now. They really do make me yawn.
IF anything, I'm burnt out on THEM Wonk. The PUMA's, the No IQ house of loons and all the off shoots.
All angry trouble makin smear merchant spewing assholes. They've had the CD on repeat for 6 months now.
Our cowardly PUMA apparently works for the State Government of Colorado, according to my blog Stats. Now you know why I don't blog from work.
Aren't most business IP addresses static? That is, they don't change? Wouldn't that make it pretty easy to find out who they are, and why they're trolling blogs at work? Hmmm....
Oh, and thank you all for the moral support, guys.
From the looks of the lefty blogs today, it looks like all of us chose today to have our little freakout.
But I'm happy with what I've seen come out of the campaign today, more on that later.
For now, I'm going PUMA hunting...
lol Wonk, I tried to refrain. I didn't want to drag your blog down with me if I was going to go off at some PUMA person. Besides, that's all they want anyways - they come troll here to get a reaction out of us. I for one refuse to give it to them, at least not here.
I think it's really funny how that Best Regards PUMA person came in here telling us not to send smear e-mails about Palin because it will discourage women from voting for Obama. Does anyone here remember when PUMA was mass e-mailing the superdelegates to try to convince them to support Hillary over Obama? Like hello, fish bowl memory anyone?
I wouldn't send out e-mails. I think that's really dirty and would detract from Obama's goal of getting into the White House. Our goal is to support him, not make him (or us) look bad.
LOL Nikolita. Great strategy - Don't even engage the monsters.
Don't worry all, I won't be outing anyone tonight.
The lead I found ended up being a dead end. The person who used to have that IP address (and was extremely prolific on the web with it going back to the '90's, with their real name no less) at the CO Attorney General's office, apparently retired from that job a few years ago.
So I'll let it lie, unless they keep trolling. The taxpayers of Colorado don't deserve to have their money wasted like that. :)
Am I ever glad I visited today. Those polls are pretty frustrating, so I really appreciated reading the comments here. Thanks everyone.
And Wonk: great image.
I guess I am tired, I have been busting my ass for the Obmama campaign for months now. (His campaign in my city is located in my office so it has included a whole bunch of extra work for me). When I see the polls come out today, where inexplicably McCain is now ahead of Obama I have to wonder at the intelligence of the American electorate. I am bummed, I have to admit, and while I would love to take heart from that photo "I have got this" I am beginning to lose heart.
anon @ 8:57 - Don't know if you're the same anon as at 8:50, but if you're not, then thanks to that other anon.
McCain was bound to get a bump from his convention, and much as I hated Palin's speech, you know it was red meat for the masses, so the base came home. And as baldheadeddork pointed out, they over-sampled Republicans, as they did in the last poll that showed McCain with a lead (though that one was smaller) over Obama.
This race is going to be won on the economy. All Barack has to do during the debates is ask that Reagan question - "Are you better off than you were eight years ago?"
McCain doesn't get to just declare himself to be divorced from Bush. It's not his call to make. The voters get to decide.
As someone Josh Marshall pointed out today, McCain had to trash his original argument to the voters of "experience" - and co-opted Barack's change theme.
Nobody looks at a 72 year old man and believes he's going to bring change. It just makes him look like a phony.
Wonk: I know you're over any fears you may have had, but just to be clear - My Mom e-mailed me that she donated to Obama and asked how sure I was he'd win. At first I told her, "He'll win the states Kerry won - possibly excluding New Hampshire - and then definitely pick up Iowa and New Mexico. If he picks up Colarado - where he got his biggest convention bounce for obvious reasons - he'll probably win."
Then I did the math again and realized, no, he'll definitely win.
I also told my Mom (in the Eastern Time Zone) if Obama wins Virginia, North Carolina, Ohio or Florida, or even New Hampshire and Indiana, she can go to bed early and not worry about Colorado. Game over. Obama wins.
Tony, I'm feeling a lot better now that several bloggers have pointed out that the pollsters who've shown the huge bump for McCain were sampling equal amounts of Republicans & Democrats in their polling.
And since Dem registration is way up, and Republican registration is way down this year, no way that model is right. I've no doubt the race is close, but no way is the old guy 10 up over Obama.
It's gonna be fine. :)
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